Kylian Mbappé has taken the lead in the Ballon d’Or race according to Polymarket. Boosted by his performances at the 2026 World Cup with the French national team, the captain of Les Bleus has now overtaken Harry Kane in the platform’s predictions.
The momentum is clearly shifting. With France qualified for the semi-finals of the 2026 World Cup, Mbappé is seeing his odds rise significantly in the Ballon d’Or race. According to the latest figures displayed on Polymarket, the French forward is now leading the list of favorites.
Mbappé’s World Cup Impact Shifts Ballon d’Or Predictions
Kylian Mbappé is now credited with 28% on Polymarket, ahead of Harry Kane at 25%. Behind them, Ousmane Dembélé remains well positioned with 15%, while Lionel Messi is still in the conversation with 13%.
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Polymarket is a prediction market platform where users bet on the outcome of future events. These percentages do not represent an official Ballon d’Or ranking, but rather an evolving estimate based on users’ wagers and expectations.
This rise is clearly explained by Mbappé’s outstanding World Cup campaign. Decisive with France, scoring and assisting against Morocco in the quarter-finals, the Real Madrid forward continues to deliver in the biggest moments. While the race remains open—with Harry Kane still a strong contender and Dembélé capable of closing the gap—Mbappé appears to have gained a clear edge. A potential place in the final, or even a world title with France, could further strengthen his position in the Ballon d’Or race.
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