The 2026 World Cup is entering its decisive phase, and Opta already has a pretty clear idea of what the final could look like. After the group stage, the famous statistical model has placed France at the top of the favorites to win the world title.
Stats never lie, or so they say. According to Opta, after 25,000 simulations of the rest of the tournament, Les Bleus have an 18.7% chance of winning the World Cup. That puts France ahead of Argentina, who remain very well positioned with a 16.3% chance of keeping their status as a major contender.
Opta Points Toward a France-Argentina Rematch
The trend is therefore clear: Opta’s data points to a possible France-Argentina final, a remake of the incredible 2022 final in Qatar. It is a scenario that would obviously shake the football world, especially after the historic duel between Mbappé and Messi four years ago.
Behind the two giants, Spain complete the podium of favorites. La Roja have a 13.5% chance of being crowned world champions, proof that they also remain a very serious candidate for the title. After that, Portugal, England and even the USA are already some way behind.
It now remains to be seen whether Opta’s numbers will prove right… or whether this World Cup still has a few surprises in store.
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