Paris Saint-Germain took a major step toward qualifying for the Champions League quarter-finals after their convincing 5–2 victory over Chelsea at the Parc des Princes. However, the club’s European history shows that even a comfortable lead does not always guarantee qualification.
PSG are in a strong position… but caution remains necessary. With a three-goal advantage before the trip to Stamford Bridge, Paris approach the second leg in an ideal situation. To turn the tie around, Chelsea would need to score at least three goals without conceding.
Statistics Favor PSG but Past Comebacks Remain a Warning
The statistics support this outlook. According to several specialized platforms such as Opta, Football Rankings and Football Meets Data, PSG have roughly a 93% chance of qualifying before the return leg.
Yet PSG are familiar with dramatic comebacks. In 2017, the club crushed Barcelona 4–0 in the first leg at the Parc des Princes, only to collapse at Camp Nou and lose 6–1, conceding three goals in the final minutes. Barcelona advanced 6–5 on aggregate in one of the most famous comebacks in football history.
Two years later, in 2019, PSG won 2–0 away at Manchester United in the first leg. But in the return match in Paris, the English side prevailed 3–1 thanks to a Marcus Rashford penalty in stoppage time, progressing on away goals. In 2022, PSG also beat Real Madrid 1–0 in the first leg and took a two-goal aggregate lead in the return match after Kylian Mbappé scored. Yet Karim Benzema netted a hat-trick in 17 minutes as Madrid won 3–1 and eliminated Paris. Luis Enrique’s players must therefore finish the job at Stamford Bridge. If they qualify, PSG will face the winner of the clash between Liverpool and Galatasaray, with the Turkish side holding a narrow 1–0 advantage after the first leg.
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